US100 Benchmark - how to read the report

What it measures

One edition at 14:00 Zurich time on US trading days. One daily scenario until the next midnight, with no separate session forecast. An assessment of data at the snapshot time, not a promise of a price move.

Why traders follow it

Compare the daily assessment with US500 and upcoming events. NEUTRAL means range-bound near the open. WAIT means conflicting or incomplete confirmation. An imminent release is a separate risk, not a reason to label price action range-bound. Agreement between two indices is not independent evidence. Gains before 14:00 do not guarantee gains after publication.

The card's three blocks

PRICE / US100: price and observed changes since 12:00 and day-start. We use USTEC CFD, whose quote differs from the official Nasdaq-100 index and NQ futures. Your broker's quote may also differ.

RANGE / EVENTS: the day's range in points, the US regular-session open and the next selected calendar release. Range is High minus Low, not a target or promised remaining move. No releases means none in the tracked calendar, not the absence of all possible news.

CROSS-ASSET: US500 changes since day-start and over 12:00–14:00. This checks the broad equity market direction. It is not a count of five companies or an independent forecast. Both indices come from one provider.

How direction is determined

The daily assessment compares US100 and US500 moves from Zurich midnight to 14:00. Matching directions outside the neutral zone can produce LONG or SHORT. The neutral threshold is ±0.10%. This is an initial model rule, not a proven statistical edge.

NEUTRAL means range-bound within ±0.10% of the daily open. When indices disagree or confirming data fail validation, we use WAIT rather than calling it range-bound. The card is withheld if core candles are incomplete.

A major release near the snapshot time is a separate risk. It does not turn an aligned direction into NEUTRAL, but it may invalidate the scenario after publication. The two-hour move is context, not a second daily forecast.

How to use it with realistic expectations

Start with the date and time, then read the daily assessment, its status and the next release. LONG means upward bias, SHORT downward, NEUTRAL range-bound near the open, and WAIT conflicting or incomplete confirmation. Even a range-bound market can have sharp internal swings.

Version v2 applies to new editions. The archive retains the original calculation version and result. Past forecasts are not rewritten retrospectively.

The 00:00-00:00 day is our calculation horizon, not exchange trading hours. Published at 14:00, the forecast does not predict the morning that has already passed. Nasdaq's regular session opens at 09:30 New York time. The Zurich time difference changes during weeks when daylight-saving transitions do not coincide.

One edition per trading day. A card delayed beyond 14:03 is not published as an evening catch-up. The original calculation is retained for outcome assessment. Direction does not supply an entry, stop or position size. Percentages on the card are price changes, not success probabilities.

Nasdaq: trading hours and holidays ↗
Gold Benchmark: separate methodology ↗
Actuals and market expectations ↗