Gold Benchmark - how to read the report

What it measures

Two gold snapshots: before London in the morning and before New York in the afternoon. These are scenarios based on available observations, not promises of price moves. Session and full-day horizons differ. A session can rise within a declining day.

Why traders follow it

Read the session and day separately. LONG is an upward bias, SHORT downward, NEUTRAL range-bound, and WAIT insufficient data. A NEUTRAL day plus a LONG session is range-bound with an upward session bias, and a SHORT session gives a downward bias. London and New York are assessed separately and can differ within a neutral day. The first published daily LONG/SHORT stays locked until Zurich midnight. Its status can change, not its direction. The three blocks are price, range/events, and DXY plus XAU/XAG. ADR is not a price ceiling. COT is weekly context, not an entry instruction.

How to use it

Published at 08:30 and 13:30 Zurich time. London: 08:30-13:30, New York: 13:30-18:00. Day: 00:00-00:00. Read the session first, then the day separately. LONG means an upward bias, SHORT a downward bias, and NEUTRAL a range-bound outlook on the relevant horizon. WAIT means key data are insufficient, not a range-bound outlook.

A NEUTRAL day and London LONG mean a range-bound day with an upward London bias. New York can be LONG or SHORT within that same neutral day because its direction is assessed separately. A SHORT session within a NEUTRAL day means a downward session bias, not a daily SHORT.

A range-bound outlook is a scenario, not a guarantee of a narrow range or no breakout. NEUTRAL may reflect limited movement, conflicting factors or an imminent major release. Also check confirmation status. The direction formula is unchanged: price plus an aligned external factor. Observation levels are not ready-made entries or targets.

Terms on the card

XAUUSD is the gold price in US dollars per troy ounce. DXY tracks the dollar against a currency basket. XAU/XAG is the gold-to-silver price ratio. A rising ratio means gold is relatively stronger than silver, not necessarily that gold itself is rising.

Low and High are the observed period's minimum and maximum. Low → High shows the current price's position in that range: 0% at the low and 100% at the high. It is neither a probability nor ADR usage.

ADR: average range ↗
US10Y: bond yield ↗
COT: weekly positioning ↗

ADR and remaining range

ADR7, ADR14 and ADR30 are average daily ranges over 7, 14 and 30 completed sessions. The daily range is High minus Low, not the distance from the open to the current price. Day boundaries and the price source must match.

Illustrative example: with ADR14 of $40 and a current daily range of $30, 75% of the average range has been used. This neither promises another $10 nor rules out a move beyond $40. The card may calculate the percentage from normalized ranges in basis points, so it cannot be reconstructed by dividing rounded dollar values.

Range Budget estimates range expansion after the same time of day using comparable historical sessions. It is a separate statistic, not ADR minus the range already covered. No remaining-range estimate is published until the history is validated. ADR from daily candles using different day boundaries is shown only as a separate reference.

Session outlooks change, the daily direction is locked

The morning edition uses data from midnight to 08:30. The New York edition uses the 08:30-13:30 window and the full day since Zurich midnight. These are observations already made, not the future session's outcome. Sessions can have different directions within a neutral day.

While the day is NEUTRAL, sufficient confirmation can turn it LONG or SHORT. The first published daily LONG/SHORT stays locked until the end of the day. New York does not replace it with the opposite direction or NEUTRAL. This preserves the original forecast for an honest assessment, not a promise that it will succeed.

Status indicates whether the daily scenario is confirmed, weakened, invalidated or unchecked. Invalidation is recorded when a completed 30-minute candle closes beyond the original invalidation level after publication. The invalidation flag remains even if price returns. Missing candles do not count as confirmation. This is an assessment at publication time, not continuous trade management.

The card shows DXY and XAU/XAG. Yields are not displayed as a separate row, but usable yield data remain part of the calculation. Missing observations are not replaced with daily values. Limited confirmation is allowed but is not a strong signal. LONG/SHORT percentages are not shown without historical calibration.